FXUS65 KBOU 041618

AFDBOU



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO

1018 AM MDT Wed Oct 4 2023



.UPDATE...

Issued at 1004 AM MDT Wed Oct 4 2023



GOES Water Vapor satellite imagery shows the trough axis pivoting

across the state this morning, with a noted clearing trend over

northern and northeastern Colorado over the past few hours. A few

very weak mountain snow showers will continue for the next couple

of hours but should dry out soon.



The rest of the day should be quiet across the majority of our

forecast area. The previous forecast looked fine and only a few

very minor updates have been made.



&&



.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)

Issued at 330 AM MDT Wed Oct 4 2023



The trough will continue to advance today, and a secondary, 

weaker wave will brush our northern mountains early in the period.

There should be minimal impact, a few more light showers in the 

mountains, and we will be behind the axis by this afternoon. QG 

fields show subsidence across the area by afternoon. Flow aloft 

will be turning northwesterly and decreasing as the trough exits. 

Skies will clear through the afternoon. Cool air will remain in 

place today, and a bit less dry, resulting in greater humidity. 

Temperatures are forecast a few degrees cooler across the plains 

and a few degrees warmer across the high country, a bit cooler 

than normal everywhere. 



Tonight, mostly clear, no precipitation, and near normal to 

slightly warm (seasonally) temperatures. I put a little bit of 

patchy fog in the forecast for Middle park, late night. Forecast 

soundings are not quite showing it, but our forecast is a bit 

colder than those soundings at the surface, with 100 percent 

maximum humidity, under clear skies, and very light wind. 



.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)

Issued at 226 AM MDT Wed Oct 4 2023



Colorado will remain under a moderate northwest flow pattern 

through Friday with below normal temperatures and generally dry 

conditions continuing.



For Thursday, an early morning frontal system will be over northeast 

Colorado with developing northeast low level flow. Despite the 

upslope flow, moisture is scarce with this system and strong mid 

level stability, so only expect an additional few degrees of cooling 

from Wednesday's high temperatures. 



On Friday, another weak cold front will move across the plains late 

Thursday night and early Friday. This will keep the low level flow 

the north and northeast with some low clouds and perhaps a few light 

showers across the far northeast plains. Moisture depth is rather

shallow so do not expect any substantial amount of showers. 

Continued cooling behind the front with high temperatures dropping

into the 50s/lower 60s across lower elevations. 



For this weekend, high pressure ridge aloft builds over west of 

Colorado with some weakening in the northwest flow aloft. Airmass 

remains dry but a warming trend will bring temperatures to around

seasonable normals. The dry and mild pattern looks to continue 

through at least Tuesday of next week with rising temperatures 

into the upper 70s to around 80 across lower elevations. 



&&



.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)

Issued at 356 AM MDT Wed Oct 4 2023



Expect VFR conditions through the TAF period. Winds have been

holding southeast for a while now, and may do so into the morning.

Models have them coming back to easterly to northeasterly this

afternoon or early evening, then back to drainage tonight. Speeds

look to be quite light, and it they may often be practically more

variable. 



&&



.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.

&&



$$



UPDATE...Hiris

SHORT TERM...EJD

LONG TERM...Entrekin

AVIATION...EJD